We know one thing heading into USF's 7:30 p.m. game tonight at North Texas: It will be the most frenzied atmosphere the Bulls have faced for an American Conference game in the Alex Golesh era.
DATCU Stadium, the Mean Green's 30,000-seat home, is sold out for the first time in its history, which dates to 2011. In a locale where you could argue that any of the 11 high school teams in the Denton, Texas area are WAY more important than UNT, the Mean Green's new celebrity status with the locals is worth noting.
So, yay. They're fired up. Good for them. The viewing audience on ESPN2 should be treated to an entertaining game.
Now, let's get into the weeds a little about this game, shall we?
How big of an edge does North Texas have with home-field advantage? Not nearly as much as their fans would like to believe. The Bulls played in front of a crowd that was three times larger and at least three times louder when they beat Florida at The Swamp.
The noise won't bother USF in the slightest, and the fact that the game will be played on artificial turf may enhance the Bulls' speedy receivers and backs.
Who could emerge as USF's hero should the Bulls win? USF will probably lean heavily on running back Sam Franklin. With Cartevious Norton still recovering from an injury last week that sent him to Tampa General Hospital, Franklin likely gets a heavier workload. He has 167 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games
Redshirt freshman Nykahi Davenport could see some extra work as well, as Golesh said he still wants to rotate three backs even without Norton.
Who does the USF defense have to stop? Everything runs through redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker. He has been phenomenal -- 11 touchdowns, no interceptions. He was a walk-on who was sixth on the QB depth chart, and he didn't even start for his high school team.
His patience was rewarded when he started UNT's bowl game, throwing for almost 400 yards and three touchdowns. He won the starting job for this season and hasn't looked back.
Could the hype for this game actually hurt North Texas? It's possible. This game is in uncharted territory for the home team. It's UNT's first 5-0 start since 1959. amd beating the Bulls would undoubtedly land them in the Top 25. More importantly, since they avoid Amerian Conference heavyweights Memphis and Tulane, a win could clear a path to the conference championship game and possibly a playoff spot.
The players are aware of this -- perhaps a little too aware.
That prompted this tweet from UNT beat writer Brett Vito of the Denton Record-Chronicle:
Morris says he might have to bring his players down a notch on Friday and calm their nerves.
— Brett Vito (@brettvito) October 8, 2025
What do the oddsmakers say? The FanDuel sportsbook betting line has gone back and forth, but has settled on North Texas by 1.5 points. That seems a little strange, given that the five opponents UNT has not exactly been a murderer's row.
The Mean Green's strength of schedule so far ranks 131st overall (out of 136 teams), while USF is 27th after opening with Boise State, Florida, and Miami.
UNT coach Eric Morris said the Bulls are the most athletic and best team the Mean Green has faced this season. Looking at the five teams UNT has beaten -- Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State, Army, and South Alabama -- it's clear they're about to step up in class. That's not saying they can't handle the moment, but you can't tell them to act like they've been here before because they haven't.
So, what's the prediction? This is Golesh's deepest and most mature team in his three seasons. The Bulls are ballhawks on defense, strong on special teams, and quarterback Byrum Brown -- as Bulls fans know -- can beat you with his arm and with his legs. He has a deep receiving corps and big-play capability.
USF is locked in for this game and has tuned out all the outside noise. If North Texas had played USF's schedule to this point, the Mean Green would be 3-2 at best -- maybe even 2-3.
Given all that, call it: USF 31, North Texas 20.