It may be a few more seasons before USF seriously contends for a spot in the College Football Playoffs. However, the new playoff policy announced Thursday by the CFP will affect the Bulls when they eventually do make the field.
Assuming USF won’t join a power conference for at least a few years, the Bulls could find themselves matched against one of the top seeds in the field.
Call it the Boise State Effect.
"The new policy will guarantee the five highest-ranked conference champions a place in the Playoff, but will no longer include a bye for the four highest-ranked champions," the CFP said in a statement.
"The 12-team bracket will now be seeded directly based on the final ranking of the CFP Selection Committee, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving a first-round bye. If one or more of the five highest-ranked conference champions are ranked outside the top 12, that team or teams would move up to the 12th seed, 11th seed, etc., based on the number of conference champions outside the top 12."
Boise State's Mountain West Conference championship, combined with No. 8 national ranking, secured the Broncos a first-game bye.
ESPN simulated how the 2024 playoff field would have looked under the new format. Boise State would have fallen to a 9th seed and would have lost to Indiana.
Instead, the Broncos received the No. 3 seed and bye. They faced Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl and got rolled, 31-14.
Even worse, the game drew the lowest TV ratings of any playoff quarterfinal.
Without saying it out loud, the CFP’s move makes it clear that no team that manages to move to the front of college football’s kiddie table will ever get a bye again. Sure, they’ll be invited to the party, along with a recommendation that they make plans for something other than a football game the following week.
I get it.
The talent gap between most of the power conference teams and the Group of 5 is considerable. We’ve seen UCF struggle to keep up with Big 12 teams.
We also saw that play out last year when USF hung tough with Alabama and Miami until the depth from those programs eventually plowed the Bulls into the ground.
For now, USF doesn’t realistically need to think about playoffs. While there’s no question that head coach Alex Golesh and his staff have done a first-rate job of rebuilding a shattered program, the more realistic immediate goal is to compete for a conference title.
If they do that, then maybe a power conference will come courting and make this all moot. Wouldn’t that be nice?