ESPN posted its prediction for the upcoming football season in the American Athletic Conference. When it comes to USF, it looks like writer Bill Connelly didn’t know what to think.
Can’t blame him. On paper, this appears to be a substantially deeper team than Alex Golesh had last season. However, the combination of a killer three-game stretch to open the season and playing expected AAC powers like Memphis and Navy on the road is a cause for pause.
Before we dive in and examine the outlook for the Bulls this season, let’s decipher a bit of shorthand in Connelly’s prediction. He developed the SP+RK analytics system, which measures a wide range of things.
SP+ aims to predict future performance and does not solely rely on a team's win-loss record or past results. It measures what college football teams should be able to consistently do to win games. If your team struggles to beat an opponent it should have routed, its rating will fall. Hang tough but fall short against a powerful foe, and the rating will increase.
RK is simply where your team ranks in various categories.
Connelly explains it in greater detail in this article he wrote in 2017 while working for SB Nation.
Cutting to the chase, his system predicts the Bulls are basically looking at another breakeven season. I assume that means he believes they will start 0-3 against Boise State, Florida, and Miami.
“Heading into 2025, USF again ranks highly in returning production, and I'm again trying to rein in expectations while SP+ again projects another holding-the-fort season. Maybe my gut's right the second time?” he wrote.
“Last year's offense overcame a season-ending leg injury to sophomore quarterback Byrum Brown and ended up surging late behind another sophomore, Bryce Archie. “They were terribly inefficient overall (116th in success rate) -- which is terrible when you're one of the few remaining offenses attempting to move at a mach-speed tempo -- but they balanced that with massive rushing explosiveness. Both Archie and Brown are back; if Brown is truly 100% healthy, he's the more explosive runner and a slightly less error-prone passer, but Archie was pretty good by the end of 2024.”
Here are a couple of other nuggets from his piece.
“The QB of choice will have a wonderfully experienced line in front of him, but the skill corps has lost its top three RBs and top two WRs,” he said.
“Sophomore wideout Keshaun Singleton has big-play potential, and Golesh added two transfer RBs (Charlotte's Cartevious Norton and Oklahoma's Sam Franklin) and four mostly unproven pass-catchers.”
He had kind words for the Bulls’ defense.
“Defensive improvement has been slow but steady under coordinator Todd Orlando. His 2024 defense was aggressive against the run and hunted turnovers, but it also gave up all the big plays you expect with that approach. If experience produces fewer breakdowns, the Bulls could be in good shape -- 13 of 20 players with 200-plus snaps return, and 10 of 12 incoming transfers are juniors or seniors.
“Mac Harris, Rico Watson III and North Texas transfer Chavez Brown should form one of the more disruptive linebacking corps in the G5, and the secondary has lots of veterans. If the defense complements an increase in offensive efficiency by allowing fewer big plays, the Bulls are in business.”