While Bulls Nation seems to be all in on what new USF football coach Brian Hartline's team can accomplish in the upcoming season, ESPN analyst Bill Connelly is taking a "show me" approach.
In his American Conference preview, Connelly -- a pioneer in college football analytics -- lists the Bulls' sixth on his list. That's after he picked, in order, Navy, Memphis, UTSA, East Carolina, and Army under the heading "Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders,"
USF leads a group labeled "A couple of breaks away from a run" in Connelly's estimation. His model predicts 7.9 wins overall and 4.5 in the conference.
"If you hire Hartline as your head coach, you're expecting him to build a hell of a roster. Hartline was long regarded as Ohio State's best recruiter over his nine seasons as an assistant at his alma mater," he wrote.
"His first USF roster will feature 10 former blue-chippers, 24 incoming transfers from power-conference rosters and a power-conference roster's worth of big dudes. His Bulls will immediately look the part."
Even with that, let's just say he is cautiously skeptical.
"Ohio State's most conservative recent offenses were the two that had him as coordinator (2023 and 2025), whether or not he was calling the plays, and his new offensive coordinator, Tim Beck, is an old friend who hasn't been part of a particularly good offense in a while. If USF scores lots of points, it will be because of superior athletes," he wrote.
"It might have those athletes. Hartline's first starting QB will likely be Michael Van Buren Jr. The former blue-chipper showed solid promise as a freshman at Mississippi State before getting caught in the wake of LSU's disastrous offense last season."
Given Connelly's projections, USF's conference schedule may not be as favorable as it initially appeared. The second game of the season is at Army, and the Bulls also travel to UTSA on a short week and then to East Carolina. Connelly projects those three teams to finish ahead of the Bulls.
The Bulls do get Memphis and Tulane at home, along with Temple (another team to keep an eye on).
Connelly seems to like what USF can be on defense.
"On defense, Hartline nabbed ECU's aggressive Josh Aldridge and handed him lots of transfers, including a couple of power conference starters. There aren't many proven veterans, but cornerZa'Quan Bryan (Minnesota) and nickel Ayden Jackson (Georgia Southern) should be immediate hits, and outside linebackers MarShon Oxley (West Virginia) and Shamar Meikle (Oregon State) seem like solid havoc creators," he wrote.
"My favorite newcomer of the bunch, however, might be defensive tackle Major Dillard (Norfolk State), who made 70 tackles last year ... at330 pounds! Chasing plays like a linebacker!"
The bottom line? The Bulls could come stampeding out of the weeds.
"It wouldn't take that much to make USF a contender," Connelly wrote. "But I do need to see that the offensive tactics are up to speed."
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