When ESPN exercised its option to televise Atlantic Coast Conference games through the 2035-36 academic year, my immediate reaction was that USF probably isn’t going anywhere for a while – maybe a long while.
In short, ESPN’s decision would seem to provide desperately needed stability to the ACC. And in a nod to FSU and Clemson, football and basketball programs that generate the most TV eyeballs will get extra cash.
This all started when those two programs grumped that they deserved larger shares because no one was tuning in to watch Wake Forest and Boston College.
That argument made more sense before Florida State went 2-10 last season, but I digress. What does all this mean for USF?
It was generally assumed the Bulls would be attractive to the ACC as a replacement for Florida State. If the Seminoles aren’t going anywhere though – at least in the next few years – there’s likely no new landing spot for USF.
The Big Ten and SEC don’t seem like potential destinations, and they may be done expanding anyway. That leaves the Big 12, and it would make sense for that conference to provide a partner (and blood rival) for UCF.
After its rapid growth in recent years though, the Big 12 may be satisfied with the status quo for a while.
Here’s something to keep an eye on: Clemson and Florida State are asking the ACC to agree to reduce penalties for leaving after 2031. That’s when the TV contracts for the other power conferences expire.
For Bulls fans lusting to leave the American Athletic Conference behind, that probably seems like an eternity.
While a lot of exciting things are happening at USF, the Bulls remain a middle-of-the-pack football team. Granted, the last two years were about exorcising the demons after several miserable seasons. The program is headed in the right direction.
You can talk market size all you want. Membership in the prestigious Association of American Universities is impressive. A new on-campus football stadium will be a wonderful addition.
But success on the football field is the big driver in realignment, and USF needs to start competing for conference championships. Sobering thought: In 25 years of playing football, the Bulls have finished under .500 in their various conferences 13 times.
2016 was the only time they finished with the same 7-1 conference record as the league champion. That was Temple, who won the tiebreaker by beating USF 46-30.
So, the mission is clear even if the future is murky.
Get better at football and win AAC championships. VP for Athletics Michael Kelly has repeatedly said the power conference members know all about USF, so keep those lines open.
Maybe realignment has a few more dominoes to fall. If not, at least be the biggest fish in a smaller conference.