While mining for stats about USF’s first four games this season, a couple of numbers stood out.
The Bulls have given up only eight sacks and have lost just one fumble.
To put that into perspective, through the first four games in 2024, opponents had sacked USF quarterbacks 15 times on their way to 36 for the season.
Now, head coach Alex Golesh would probably say that even eight sacks through four games is eight too many. The Bulls can work on that in practice, and with American Conference play set to begin Friday against Charlotte, we can be sure they already have.
However, two factors are primarily responsible for this year’s improved numbers.
First, during the off-season, Golesh and his staff concentrated on upgrading the offensive line. It shows.
And second, quarterback Byrum Brown is healthy again, which means he can turn potential sacks into big plays with his legs. USF defines explosive plays as 15 or more yards.
Brown has three of those, including two for touchdowns.
It doesn’t stop there, however. Brown has 24 explosive passes, including four TDs in 2-1/2 quarters against South Carolina State, so the line is giving him time to find his targets. Against South Carolina State, USF running backs ripped off touchdowns of 54, 43, and 30 yards.
Looking ahead to conference play, Pro Football Focus forecasts the Bulls have the 88th-ranked remaining schedule. That’s after playing the 14th-toughest non-conference schedule.
Among schools in the American, North Texas (111), Tulane (108), Army (102), East Carolina (100), and Memphis (89) have “easier” remaining games than the Bulls.
FPF projects that USF has an 88 percent chance of going to a bowl game for the third straight season, but only a 6 percent chance of winning the conference.
It gives Memphis, Tulane, North Texas, Navy, and East Carolina better odds of posing with the championship trophy.
North Texas and East Carolina seem to be the flavor of the month lately in the American. And Florida’s struggles have probably devalued USF’s win at The Swamp somewhat in the world of analytics.
It’s fun to fool around with these numbers, but projections like these are just a computer’s guess about what’s going to happen.
The computers were wrong when they said the Bulls would lose to Boise State and Florida. We’re about to find out if they will be wrong again