When the schedule was announced for this season, USF's game on Friday with North Texas probably didn't jump out as anything to be overly concerned about. And we surely didn't think it would be a pivotal game in the American Conference race with College Football Playoff implications.
But here we are.
The Mean Green is a surprising 5-0 overall and 1-0 in the conference, and the hype is overflowing in Denton, Texas. Given that this arguably is the Mean Green's toughest remaining American contest -- they don't play Memphis or Tulane -- a win could clear a path for them to the league championship game.
Fans there are responding accordingly.
UNT classes are canceled after noon on Friday, festivities are planned, and the campus is ready to party. ESPN2 will share the story on national TV.
🗣️ Tell a friend to tell a friend!#ComeToTheBay | #StayInTheBay pic.twitter.com/4zqhqG4crz
— USF Football (@USFFootball) October 5, 2025
When you run down the list of points scored by North Texas so far this season, it becomes obvious that the Mean Green will be a major test for USF. They have topped 50 points twice in their first five games and have scored at least 33 points in the other contests.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has completed 67.9 percent of his passes and has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. His QB rating is 158.4, which sounds like a video game number. Given the fact that USF was inconsistent on defense after getting way ahead of Charlotte in the Bulls' last game, those numbers will at least raise an eyebrow, if not your blood pressure.
Mestemaker, a redshirt freshman, is a great story. He was a backup quarterback, punter, and safety at Vandegrift High School in Austin, Texas. He walked on at North Texas, where head coach Eric Morris saw something Mestemaker's high school coach didn't.
Morris is a quarterback whisperer of sorts. While serving as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, Morris recruited and coached Patrick Mahomes. UNT finished sixth in the country in total offense in 2023 and third in 2024.
I am certain USF coach Alex Golesh and his defensive staff will say nothing publicly that would suggest this game will be anything but a knock-down, drag-out affair. And since the early lines have the Mean Green favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points, that will be a logical approach.
But let's take a look at some other numbers, courtesy of ESPN Analytics.
Start with the strength of schedule for North Texas. The Mean Green has compiled their 5-0 record against Lamar, Western Michigan, Washington State, Army, and South Alabama. That ranks as the 132nd toughest schedule so far out of 136 teams.
Well, you can only play the teams on your schedule, so we'll find out Friday how much SOS really means.
USF, ranked 24th in the latest AP poll, is more battle-tested to this point, given the opening stretch of games against Boise State, Florida, and Miami. The latter two were road games, so while the atmosphere at DATCU Stadium will be juiced up, it still won't compare to what the Bulls faced at The Swamp and Hard Rock Stadium.
If the Bulls' defense plays like it did against Boise and Florida, USF should win.
If it plays like it did in the second half against Charlotte ... uh, let's keep a good thought.