The oddsmakers were correct about USF this time.
They said USF wouldn’t come close to beating Miami, and the Hurricanes – 17.5-point favorites – more than lived up to the hype.
It doesn’t take an advanced degree in college football analytics to see why Miami smoked the Bulls 49-12 Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in a game delayed one hour and 42 minutes by lightning early in the second quarter.
All that did was prolong the agony for USF.
No excuses. When USF tried to get back into the game, which it did after spotting the 'Canes an early two-touchdown lead, Miami made the stops.
There was none bigger than when the Bulls went for it on 4th-and-2 at Miami's 9-yard line with 4:12 left in the third quarter, trailing 28-6. After a timeout, USF coach Alex Golesh called a quarterback run up the middle.
Miami stuffed it, took over at its 9-yard line, and quickly drove 91 yards in six plays for a putaway touchdown.
Ballgame.
"I thought the first half, really, that first quarter, we came out and I thought we didn't look like us. I don't think we ran like we have been. I don't think we certainly executed like we have been," Golesh said.
The Hurricanes dominated up front, particularly on the offensive line.
That allowed Miami quarterback Carson Beck all the time he needed to slice the Bulls’ secondary to pieces. He completed 23-of-28 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns. Beck's passing opened up rushing lanes for Mark Fletcher, who responded with 120 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bulls shot into national prominence after opening the season with wins against 25th-ranked Boise State and 13th-ranked Florida. They were underdogs in both games.
So, temporarily at least, USF’s reign as what ESPN analyst Pat McAfee called “the upset darlings” has come to an end. Besides, looking at the glass half full, the Bulls might not be an underdog again this season, at least not a double-digit one, depending on how things go.
The Bulls now get a chance to breathe after that opening obstacle course. They are at home next Saturday against South Carolina State, a good FCS team, but one the Bulls should handle.
After an open date, USF opens American Conference play at home against Charlotte. A trip to North Texas could be pesky, but after that, the Bulls are at home against Florida Atlantic, a team they should throttle.
They could/should be 6-1 before heading to Memphis on October 25. Two weeks later, they’re at Navy, which is always a tough out.
Saturday’s result notwithstanding, USF is a much tougher out this year than it has been in recent memory.
If the Bulls can win those two games, they’ll almost certainly be in the American Conference championship game against either Tulane or Army. A spot in the College Football Playoff could be on the line.
Meanwhile, back in Miami, Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown had a tough night. He was harassed, off-target, and threw his first interception in 253 passes.
Golesh believes in process more than perspective, but a game like this might call for the latter.
If someone told a Bulls fan before the season started that their team would be 2-1 after that gauntlet, they would have taken it in a nanosecond.
They came into this game with back-to-back historic wins that changed the perception of the Bulls. This game will leave a bruise, but a small one. They’re not on Miami’s level yet, but that doesn’t mean USF won’t be eventually.
"The end result wasn't what we wanted, and it certainly isn't what we expect as a program. But I am proud of the single fight of that group. I am proud of the resiliency of that group. Ain't nobody pointing a finger. Ain't nobody blaming anybody," Golesh said.
"Ultimately, my job is to have us more ready to play than that, and I failed tonight. I'll own that, and I'll be better, but as a program. We will be in that situation again, maybe this year, maybe next year, but whenever we are going to be in that situation again, my job is to make sure that we're more ready than we were tonight."