All you have to do is look at two non-conference games on the USF football schedule to understand the challenge the Bulls will face in the upcoming season. Playing at Alabama and hosting Miami within the first four games would be a handful for any team.
But the challenge doesn’t begin to stop there.
According to the College Football Network's ranking, the Bulls have the second-toughest schedule in the American Athletic Conference. CFN ranks the schedule challenge 68th overall, four spots behind Tulane.
CFN says USF’s toughest game is at Alabama (duh!), the week after the easiest joust on the schedule—the opening game at home against Bethune-Cookman.
Memphis, ranking third in the “toughest schedule” category, gets a lot of respect. The Tigers are projected as the hardest game for Charlotte, UAB, and North Texas.
USF, on the other hand, is considered the top opponent in difficulty only for Florida Atlantic.
While anticipation for what the Bulls might accomplish this season is building – playoffs, anyone? – the first six weeks could tell just where USF stacks up.
Following a trip to Southern Mississippi following the Alabama game, the Bulls are home against Miami, then open conference play at Tulane before returning home for a Friday night game against Memphis.
A split in those first two AAC games would not be terrible, but two losses would be. Since it’s July, let’s keep our rose-colored glasses close and imagine where the Bulls would be if they could win both of those games (and Miami, too).
Also, for what it’s worth, Temple is not on USF’s schedule. The Owls are the AAC’s lowest-projected team.
How do they figure this stuff?
CFB maintains its projection is “crafted carefully using as many resources as possible ahead of the 2024 season. Using a bevy of metrics such as returning production, roster projections, coaching staff, incoming talent, home-field advantage, and other factors, the CFN SOS analyzes which teams have the most difficult and easiest schedules this season.”
It also considers quarterbacks, transfer portal classes, and returning coaching staffs.
Predictions are fun to play around with, and the Bulls are getting respect after spending several seasons in the land of the lost.
And, after all, USF was projected to finish 13th in the preseason AAC power rankings last year. And Athlon Sports noted, “There are no quick fixes for new coach Alex Golesh, who arrives in Tampa after helping Josh Heupel transform Tennessee's offense into one of the best in college football over the last two years.”
I don’t know. I think going from one win to seven in Golesh’s first season qualified as a fix that happened quickly.
By the way, if you think this season's start is challenging, wait until you see the 2025 schedule.
USF’s first three games are home against Boise State, followed by road games at Florida and Miami.
We’ll worry about that when the time comes.