Wait, what? USF football is behind Charlotte in AAC talent rankings?

The website 247sports.com is out with its annual college football talent composite, and I was a little surprised by some of the rankings for the American Athletic Conference.

USF football ranked fourth among the conference’s 14 teams in overall talent, which, I guess, is OK. But I cocked an eyebrow when I saw Charlotte was the No. 2 team on the list with 12 four-star rated players.

Huh?

Apparently, those stars were based on the players' status coming out of high school and not so much on what they’ve done in college.

For instance, Charlotte has a four-star senior defensive lineman named Dre Butler. He arrived in town after stops at Independence Community College, Auburn, and Michigan State. He seems to have perpetual wandering eyes.

Defensive lineman Demon Clowney – cousin of Jadeveon Clowney – was a four-star out of high school but hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. He has 4.5 sacks total in four seasons. That’s not exactly elite production.

Defensive back Ja'Qurious Conley started his college career at North Carolina and had decent production there to start, but he has only played two games since 2022 because of injuries.

You get the idea.

Charlotte was a steaming pile in 2023, the first season under coach Biff Poggi. The Bulls gave ‘em a 48-14 beatdown in Tampa, but, in fairness, the 49ers were depleted that game, and the talent simply wasn’t there. If Poggi can get even a few of these one-time four-star players to return to a semblance of what was expected of them out of high school, the 49ers could be a little better.

But right now, it’s a steep climb. They were picked 13th out of 14 teams in the preseason media poll.

Oh, wait a minute … that’s also where USF was picked last year.

For what it’s worth, 247sports ranks Tulane, Charlotte, and UTSA ahead of the Bulls. Memphis, the preseason pick to win the conference, ranks fifth.

Looking at USF’s composite, we find that receiver Sean Atkins – who set school records for receptions and total yards last year – has no stars.  We know the story of how he went from a walk-on to becoming the best receiver in the conference, which means he’s a pretty big star now.

The composite doesn’t account for a player’s heart.

Personally, I think all this star-tracking is baloney because trying to predict what a high school kid will do when he’s lined up across from Ohio State is risky. Former Florida and South Carolina coach Will Muschamp once railed to me about the folly of three-star this guy and four-star that guy.

He pointed out how often NFL teams, with all of their resources, mess up their first-round picks. Given that, we're supposed to judge, say, the 18th-ranked high school offensive tackle versus the 35th?

But folks love to do it and debate which teams will win because they have the most five-star guys. That’s part of why we love sports.

What matters most is what happens when these kids discover what it’s like to be coached on the Division-I level. That’s when the stars really come out, but, for now, USF feels like its star is shining brightly.

As for Charlotte, we'll see. My forecast is a lot of falling stars for that team.