Sizing up USF football's five remaining opponents as the Bulls seek bowl eligibility

USF kept hope alive for a winning season and a second straight bowl bid by beating UAB 35-25 last Saturday, and now the Bulls will take their second and final break of the season.

They don’t play again until Friday, November 1, at Florida Atlantic, the first of five regular-season games that remain for the Bulls.

At 3-4, USF needs a minimum of three wins in those remaining games to become bowl eligible. As things stand now, the Bulls should be favored in all but one game in their closing stretch.

Let’s take a look:

At Florida Atlantic, November 1: Former Texas coach Tom Herman was bandied about when USF sought a coach to replace Jeff Scott. Instead, he landed at FAU, which may be a bigger revitalization job than realized. The Owls were 4-8 last year and are 2-5 this season.

Of course, we remember that one of FAU’s four wins in 2023 was a 56-14 wallop of USF on the Bulls’ homecoming day.

The Owls’ most recent loss was 38-24 at UTSA after they entered the fourth quarter tied. That continued a disturbing trend for FAU, which has been outscored 48-24 in the fourth quarter this season. The Owls also tend to fall behind early; they have been outscored 40-24 in the first period of games.

They also blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in the last three minutes of the game at home against North Texas.

A cautionary note: quarterback Cam Fancher threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in that game. He also rushed for 69 yards.

Navy, November 9: On paper, this game is far and away USF’s toughest remaining contest.

The Midshipmen are 6-0 overall and 4-0 in American Athletic Conference play. They are one of only three teams to win every game by double digits, and included in that list is a 56-44 bashing of Memphis.

They’re ranked 24th in both the AP and AFCA Coaches polls. Navy has a huge game this weekend against Notre Dame in East Rutherford, N.J., and then the Middies return to conference play at Rice before heading to Tampa to face the Bulls.

The game is USF’s homecoming, rescheduled from October 19 because of Hurricane Milton.

Navy averages 44.8 points and nearly 275 yards rushing per game.

Quarterback Blake Horvath is a dual-threat weapon. He leads the Middies in both passing and rushing. He has carried the ball 79 times through Navy’s six games, and that’s 30 more than the next closest player on the team.

He averages 103 yards per game on the ground with ten touchdowns, but don’t go to sleep in the secondary. Although he has only thrown 72 times in six games, ten of them have gone for touchdowns.

At Charlotte, November 16: The 49ers are 3-4 overall and 2-1 in the AAC, but that’s a little deceiving. The wins were over bottom-feeders Rice and East Carolina. They had five turnovers in a 51-17 loss to Navy.

They’re surrendering an average of 182 rushing yards per game, which might bode well for the Bulls, who rediscovered their MIA running game against UAB. Charlotte also averages only 3.6 yards per carry.

The 49ers use three quarterbacks, but none has been particularly effective. They’ll also face Memphis and Tulane within five days before getting a 17-day break before playing the Bulls.

Tulsa, November 23: The wheels fell off the Golden Hurricane with a 20-10 loss Saturday to a woeful Temple team. That was their third loss in a row and the fifth in six games.

They’ve allowed 272 yards per game through the air and had problems in the middle parts of games. Opponents have outscored them 153-78 in the second and third quarters.

This will be USF’s senior night, and assuming the Bulls haven’t lost a winnable game during the closing stretch, it will be one they absolutely have to win. If they hold serve in the other games where they should be favored, a win here would make the Bulls bowl eligible.

At Rice, November 30: The Owls are just 2-5 overall and 1-3 in the conference, but they’ve been feisty at times.

They were tied with Tulane after three quarters before the Green Waves pulled out a 24-10 win. They also beat UTSA.

Although USF likely will be favored, this would not be a game where the Bulls would have their bowl eligibility hanging on the outcome.