The beginning of the end of South Florida's football stay at Raymond James Stadium happens in two weeks when the Bulls face FIU to open the season.
USF leaders want to make the team's final season at Ray-Jay a celebration of a program entering its 30th year. However, the Panthers will travel from Miami with the full intention of spoiling the party. As optimistic as Bulls fans are about the upcoming season, FIU feels the same way about its prospects.
Under first-year head coach Willie Simmons, the Panthers finished last season 7-6. That broke a string of seven consecutive losing seasons, and now FIU is thinking big. The Panthers believe they will contend for the Conference USA title, and they might be right.
The Bulls will soon begin game-planning for the game, but it's not easy. FIU added multiple players through the Transfer Portal, including quarterback JJ Kohl from Appalachian State (he initially signed with Iowa State). He is a large young man at 6-7 and 250 pounds.
In eight games last season, Kohl threw for 12 touchdowns with only two interceptions. He also battled undisclosed injuries throughout much of the year and opted out of the Birmingham Bowl for medical reasons. Like the Bulls top two quarterbacks -- Michael Van Buren and Luke Kromenhoek -- Kohl was a 4-star player out of high school.
Getting a full read on what to expect isn't easy.
"We've got ways to kind of go about it. You're exactly right though. That's same issue they have probably with us, you know," Bulls coach Brian Hartline said.
Fair point. In trying to figure out what USF is going to do, Simmons and his staff will need a lot of guesswork. With a new coaching staff and a massive roster turnover, the Bulls will force FIU to adjust on the fly. Hartline and his staff will at least have a few things to go about the Panthers,.
"You'll watch some stuff from last year and you'll do your research on wherever you can to say we haven't looked. We've been looking at the spring (game)," Hartline said.
"I think we have our ways ofnfinding out information, trying to figure out what they're running and what their identity is. But you'll find out a lot more on game day and your ability to adjust will be a big part of the opportunity to come out victorious."
The early lines have the Bulls favored by about 12 points.
Simmons, who had success at FAMU before taking the Panthers' job, is an offensive minded coach. His team averaged nearly five yards per carry on the ground last year. Most of that was thanks to Kejon Owens, who ran for 1,334 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Owens is gone, but former Georgia Tech transfer Anthony Carrie returns. He ran for 469 yards season. There appears to be some depth behind him, but the offensive line could be a question mark that the Bulls' massive defensive front can exploit.
USF will need to be wary of the Panthers' pass rush. They led their conference last year in sacks, and top pass rusher Kenton Simmons returns.
Opening games are always tricky, especially with a new coaching staff, a roster overhaul, and against an opponent that has nothing to lose.
And there is this moment of pause.
Of USF's last five head coaches, only Charlie Strong won his opening game against what was referred to as a Division I oponent back in the day.
Skip Holtz won his opener that was against a tomato can named Stony Brook, so he only gets partial credit for that. The following week, the Bulls were blown out by Florida.
And, OK, Jeff Scott's first game was a 27-6 win over The Citadel, but since that was USF's only win in 2020 we're putting that in the same in the same category as Holtz. Scott actually lost his first 13 games against Division I teams.
Inhale. Exhale.
Long-time Bulls fans will break out in hives at the memory of the 53-21 blowout loss against McNeese State in Willie Taggart's first game.
Charlie Strong beat San Jose State 42-22 in his debut, but Alex Golesh's Bulls lost to Western Kentucky 41-24 in his debut.
What does all this have to do with the Bulls' game against FIU?
Nothing, really. But it does point out that opening games can be hard to predict.
Still ....
Call it USF 34, FIU 14.
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