There is no figuring out American Athletic Conference football this season. That much became clear last Saturday when Rice thumped Navy 24-10, which was undefeated two weeks ago. Memphis saw any hope of playing for the AAC title evaporate in a shocking 44-36 loss to unheralded UTSA.
Rice was playing its first game since firing head coach Mike Bloomgren on October 27. There was a five-hour weather delay before the game began, and the Owls handled it better than the Midshipmen, jumping to a 14-0 first-quarter lead.
They never looked back.
Why do we care about these results?
There are three reasons:
First, USF hosts Navy on Saturday in the Bulls’ homecoming game, originally scheduled for October 19 against UAB but was delayed by Hurricane Milton. The Bulls are coming off a satisfying 45-24 win over FAU to even their overall record and 4-4 and keep hope alive for a second straight bowl appearance.
We figured Navy would be the only game in the second half of the season where the Bulls would be underdogs. The early line from FanDuel has Navy favored by 3.5 points, but who knows what to expect after two straight losses by the Midshipmen – including the head-shaking one to Rice, which was 2-6 at the time.
Second, we also figured the Bulls would be able to handle the Owls without too much sweat in the regular-season finale in Houston. They might still do that, but it might take a little more perspiration than we thought to pull it off.
Third, Memphis might want to look in a ditch somewhere to find its missing tires because the wheels have come off for the Tigers.
Losing to UTSA, which was 3-5 at the time, a week after barely scraping by Charlotte underscores the value of preseason predictions. Before any games were played this season, the Tigers were anointed as a strong favorite to win the AAC title.
They’re still 7-2 overall and they’ll be bowl-bound after the regular season. However, that’s a far cry from their dreams of crashing the expanded playoffs this season.
It also makes it increases the odds that the AAC championship game will be between Tulane and Army.
Both are undefeated in the conference, and if USF can take out Navy on Saturday, that would be Midshipmen’s second AAC loss. Army, 6-0 in the conference, has a sneaky tough game at North Texas on Saturday which could jumble the picture, but should the Black Knights win there, they’ll have only UTSA left on their league schedule.
Meanwhile, Tulane has won six straight and has outscored opponents 260-113 during that stretch. The Green Wave is 5-0 in the AAC with games left against Temple, Navy, and Memphis.
Of course, all this is a presumption and trying to predict the future. How’s that working out so far?
BULLS LINEBACKER GETS HONOR: USF senior linebacker Jhalyn Shuler was an honorable mention in the AAC’s weekly football honors list.
He had a team-high 10 tackles, including 1.5 for losses, and two quarterback hurries in the Bulls’ 44-21 win at Florida Atlantic.
UAB quarterback Jalen Kitna was the offensive player of the week after he completed 25 of 32 passes for 404 yards and a school-record-tying six touchdowns in a 59-21 win over Tulsa. The week before against USF Kitna threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns with an interception as the Bulls won 35-25.