The UTSA Roadrunners just turned the American Conference football race on its head -- and opened the door wide for USF to earn a spot in the conference championship game.
The caveat to that is that the Bulls face a must-win game against the Roadrunners on Thursday night at Raymond James Stadium. And while that may have looked like a sure thing a few weeks ago, it's anything but that now.
UTSA clobbered Tulane 48-26 on Thursday night. The Green Wave was a 5.5-point favorite and looked the part with a 75-yard scoring drive on its first possession. The Roadrunners scored the next 31 points, and when the onslaught was done the Conference race was a jumbled mess.
Navy is 5-0 in the American, but the Midshipmen are 6.5-point underdogs Saturday at North Texas, according to FanDuel Sports Book. Including the game at North Texas, Navy is likely to be an underdog in its next four games -- including November 15 against the Bulls.
With its first conference loss, Tulane fell into a mosh pit of six teams with only one conference loss. USF is in that group with a 3-1 record in the American.
In this conference, assuming anything is dangerous. But for the sake of argument, let's say Navy comes back to earth.
What then?
Well, for USF, it's real simple -- if the Bulls win their final four regular-season games, the Bulls will be in the conference championship game with a chance to go to the College Football Playoff.
The ESPN matchup predictor gives the Bulls an 86 percent chance to beat UTSA. The same analytic gives USF a 76.6 percent chance to beat Navy, a 92.5 percent chance to beat UAB, and a a 96.4 percent chance to beat Rice.
Those are pretty good odds.
However, after struggling early in the season and losing 55-17 at North Texas in their previous game, the Roadrunners turned Tulane into road kill. Quarterback Owen McCown was magnificent, completing 31 of 33 pass attempts for 370 yards and four touchdowns.
That's what the USF defense will be trying to stop on Thursday.
If they are successful, USF fans might want to engage in scoreboard watching to see how the conference race is shaking out.
Here are the key matchups for the other one-loss American teams.
Memphis: November 7 against Tulane and November 21 vs. Navy. Both are home games.
Tulane: November 7 at Memphis and November 22 at Temple.
North Texas: November 1 against Navy and November 28 vs. Temple, both at home.
Temple: November 1 against East Carolina at home and November 28 at North Texas.
East Carolina: November 1 at Temple and November 22 at UTSA.
The loser of the Memphis-Tulane game will have a second conference setback, which would be nearly impossible to overcome.
The same goes for USF against the Roadrunners and Navy. The Bulls hold a tiebreaker over North Texas, but if Memphis ends with only one conference loss (and assuming Navy tanks), the Tigers would have the tiebreaker over USF.