You might think the collapse of USF's baseball team is one of the strangest stories of the year in the Bulls' athletic department.
There's no way, you think, that a team which started the season 18-3 (and is 30-18 overall) will need a mini-miracle to even qualify for the American Conference tournament next week in nearby Clearwater.
The truth is, however, that the impressive start to USF's second season under head coach Mitch Hannahs came with more than a few red flags.
Take the non-conference schedule, for instance. It was loaded with creampuffs,
The Warren Nolan website ranks USF's non-conference strength of schedule at No. 129,
When the Bulls ripped off a six-game winning streak early in the season, two of the wins were against an 11-30 North Dakota State team (RPI: 278). They swept three games from 16-37 Georgia Southern (RPI: 209).
After taking two of three at a pretty good UCF team (29-19, No. 31 RPI), it was back to feasting on cotton candy. There were two wins over 21-30 Stetson (195), three wins over Southern (No. 190), two over Jacksonville (No. 142), three over 15-23 Columbia (No. 188).
Two losses to Bethune-Cookman (No, 171) sounded the red alert. At 35-17, the Wildcats have a fine team this year, but there is no way the Bulls should lose both games against them.
Then, there's the fact that the American is solid conference. Warren Nolan ranks it sixth overall among leagues and statistics show the Bulls didn't have the firepower or pitching depth to compete for at least an upper-division spot.
Heading into the final home series of the season, the Bulls have combined to hit just 22 home runs (against 45 allowed). That's the lowest total in the American.
Nathan Earley is the team leader with five. That's not a lot.
With their participation in the conference tournament hanging by a silk thread, the Bulls suffered 16-6 and 9-8 losses last weekend. That continued a distressing trend in conference play. USF is allowing more than six runs a game against confernce opponents, and their best pitcher -- freshman Michael Senay -- fell off in the latter part of the season.
In his last five starts, Senay's longest outing was six innings against FAU and had three starts where he lasted four innings or less. He was tagged for 23 runs in that span after giving up only eight earned in his first eight starts.
Making things worse, Senay left his start last weekend against Tulane after innings with what USF called "an apparent injury."
Through three. pic.twitter.com/6cDRki34YU
— USF Baseball (@USFBaseball) May 1, 2026
The Bulls are in 10th place (out of 10 teams) entering a three-game series starting Friday at home against Wichita. Only the top eight teams qualify for the conference tournament, so USF's path to qualify is basically like trying to scale a mountain wearing flipflops.
The Bulls need to sweep their series and hope Tulane (at Rice) or Charlotte (home vs. Memphis) lose their final series. If the Bulls win two of three, one of the two teams ahead of them need to be swept.
It would be the second time in three seasons that USF didn't qualify for the tournament in its backyard.
Hannahs came to USF a year ago off an impressive run at Indiana State. He led the Bulls to a 31-25 record in his first season, including 16 conference wins. The Bulls had losing records in five of the six previous seasons.
They finished third in the American after being picked to finish seventh. They won two games in the conference tournament. There was a lot of reason for optimism heading into this season.
"We've physically gotten better,'' Hannahs said on GoUSFBulls.com. "The reality for us now is are we detail-oriented? That's the big thing moving forward. Are we (better) at winning the game within the game?
"We're going to have more pitching depth. We're going to put a team on the field that's better equipped to deal with the variables, such as weather. If the wind is howling in and nobody can get it to the warning track, we've got a group to play the short game. If the wind is blowing out, we've got a group that can play the long game. I think you'll see us to be able to go with more lefties against good righties (pitchers) and more righties against good lefties (pitchers). It's all part of the progression.''
Alas, it has been regression instead of progression.
That's the reality USF faces as the regular-season winds down. It's not overstating matters to say missing the conference tournament -- again -- would have been thinkable when this season began.
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