Anyone who has watched a decent amount of USF men's basketball this season knows that the Bulls have earned every accolade coming their way. If they beat Rice on Wednesday in Houston, it will be their 20th win of the season, something they have done only six times in their 55-year history.
By contrast, they have 14 seasons with 20 or more losses, including five straight years from 2013 through 2018. But, this ain't the same old .... oh, you know.
A win will move the Bulls a step closer to the regular-season American Conference championship, which would be their second in the last three years. They have the 11th-highest scoring average in the country at 88.7 points per game.
It's worth mentioning, @IzaiyahN had a pretty good week 🏆 pic.twitter.com/zCvObtkOBL
— USF Men's Basketball (@USFMBB) February 23, 2026
This team plays with swagger and is capable of running just about anyone out of the gym with its long-range shooting and swarming defense.. Its NET rating is a program-best No. 52 with a good chance to break into the 40s. The Bulls are also 2-2 in Quad 1 games.
So why, you may ask, is the general consensus that USF must win the conference tournament to guarantee itself a spot in March Madness?
Blame it on the conference the Bulls are in. That's the excuse naysayers are using, anyway. I'll explain in a bit why that;s a crock.
The Warren Nolan basketball site rates the American as only the 10th-best conference in the country. That's partly because Memphis, the preseason favorite, is having a dreadful season by its standards.
USF, Tulsa (55), and Wichita State (85) are the only American teams in the top 100 NET rankings. The remaining 10 teams drag the conference down in the numbers game that substitutes analytics and eliminates the eyeball test.
Thursday's opponent, Rice, is No. 250. Tulane, who the Bulls play at home on Sunday, is No. 184.
Charlotte, the Senior Night opponent, is No. 181.
I get it. The bottom two-thirds of the American struggles, to put it politely.
But I did some poking around on the projections for other conferences, and some of the numbers are surprising.
For instance, CBS Sports' latest bracketology predictions call for the ACC to get nine teams in the field. Cal is six spots below USF at No. 58 but is included. Also, eight of Cal's 18 wins came against Quad 4 teams compared to five for USF.
The Bulls are also within striking range of Big 12 teams like TCU (No. 47) and UCF (46).
Yet, the American is dismissed by many as a "one-bid league." History doesn't back that up, by the way. Last year was the first time since the 2020 season, when COVID 19 forced cancellation of March Madness, that the conference received just one bid.
The Bulls played a tough non-conference schedule and were dealt an American schedule that was the hardest in the league. Because the Bulls were picked to finish second, they were given home-and-home meetings against Tulsa, Wichita State, UAB, Tulane, Memphis, and Florida Atlantic; each of those teams was expected to contend.
Meanwhile, they got just one game against East Carolina, Rice, and UTSA -- the bottom three teams in the league.
So, we wait for the season to play itself out, holding on to one hard fact: If the Bulls do win the conference tournament and receive an automatic bid, their first-round opponent better bring its A game, These guys are for real.