The door for USF to not just qualify for the American Conference championship game but also to serve as the host team opened wide Friday night.
When Tulane knocked off Memphis 38-32, it effectively eliminated the Tigers from any shot at qualifying to play in the title game. It also elevated the Bulls into the catbird seat if they can win their final three games, starting next Saturday at Navy.
USF and Navy are among the five teams with one conference loss. Tulane, North Texas, and East Carolina are the others. If the Bulls prevail against the Midshipmen, they will have a pair of sub-.500 teams left on their schedule -- UAB and Rice.
If USF runs the table in its final three games, it is all but certain that the Bulls play for the title and possibly qualify for the College Football playoff. In that scenario, Tulane seems to be the only contender that could grab the host spot, but the dominoes are falling in USF's direction.
Here is the American breakdown for hosting the title game for two teams with identical conference records. We'll keep it simple.
If they did not play head-to-head -- USF and Tulane will not -- they go to Plan B to break the tie. That is the latest available College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings. That's where Tulane's shocking loss to UTSA comes into play. No Group of 6 team was in the initial top 25 playoff rankings, but Memphis led all non-power conference teams. That's going to change.
Yes, USF lost at Memphis -- a 3-point setback on the road -- but the Bulls blitzed UTSA 55-23. They also have the non-conference wins over Boise State and Florida in their pocket, which the CFP selection committee will take into account when making its rankings.
While the top Group of 6 team is guaranteed a playoff spot — likely as the 12th seed in the 12-team field — that doesn't mean the American champion automatically secures the spot. We'll also have to do a little scoreboard watching with 7-1 James Madison and 7-1 San Diego State (7-1), although the Aztecs have a horrific 36-13 loss at Washington State and still have to play Boise State.
Here is a team-by-team look at what remains for the American teams with one conference loss and how they fared against other contenders.
* USF: Beat North Texas 63-36. Key game: November 15 at Navy. A second conference loss would bury the Bulls' hopes.
* Navy: Lost to North Texas. Key game: November 15 at home against USF. The Midshipmen also have a November 27 game at Memphis. If they win those two games, their odds of qualifying for the title game greatly improve.
* North Texas: Key game: November 28 at Temple. The Mean Green also has games they should win against UAB and Rice, Temple can be a little feisty, but the odds look good for North Texas to finish 11-1 overall and possibly get a rematch with the Bulls in Tampa. It is worth noting that North Texas avoided playing Memphis, Tulane, and East Carolina. They would hold the tie-breaker over Navy,
* Tulane: Key game: November 22 at Temple. The Green Wave also has games with Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. They should win all three of those games for a 10-2 finish, possibly triggering a three-way tie for first place.
* East Carolina: Key game: November 15 at Memphis. The Pirates are a good story under first-year coach Blake Harrell, but they face long odds of making the championship game even if they win out. They have Charlotte, UTSA, and Florida Atlantic left besides Memphis, but the 26-19 loss at Tulane looms large.
What does all this mean for USF?
Just win, baby. Do that and everything else will take care of itself.