Here at Green, Gold and Bold we like to have fun with numbers. With that in mind, one of the more interesting preseason prediction models is the ESPN FPI -- also known as as the Football Power Index.
And this season it looks like the algorithm doesn't quite know what to make of USF. It ranks the Bulls fourth in the American Conference, behind Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. The Bulls check in at No. 73 nationally,.
That, by the way, is an improvement over 2025, when the Bulls were ranked 80th in the nation. They finished No. 25 in the ratings. That was well ahead of Memphis (57) and Navy (68) which, to refresh your memory., torpedoed the Bulls' hopes of qualifying for the conference title game and the playoffs.
Basically, the ranking is saying USF should have won both of those games.
We'll leave it to your fertile minds to assaign blame for those setbacks.
This year, the algorithm projects eight wins for USF -- the same total as the three teams ranked ahead of the Bulls.
That seems a tad bit low for me.
First off, USF's non-conference schedule is not even the same universe as last year's murderers row of Boise State, Florida, and Miami.
With an out-of-conference slate this year of FIU, Delaware State, Bowling Green, and Kent State, anything less than 4-for-4 against those teams will be a shock.
Some of the preseason pickers are ga-ga for UTSA, and ithe Bulls will travel there on a short week. But the predictions are justifying that choice because the Roadrunners have a proven quarterback in Owen McCown and added 19 players through the Transfer Portal.
Only 19?
USF's Brian Hartline could look at that and tell UTSA "hold my beer." The Bulls added 41 players through the portal, including quarterbacks Michael Bennett, Jr. and Luke Kromenhoek from SEC schools.
If the Bulls can prevail in that game and haven't stumbled anywhere leading up to it (Army in Week 2 will be difficult), it will be time to start dreaming of that first elusive conference championship and, dare we say the P word --- sure, why not?
Playoffs!
In that scenario, USF would still have to deal with going to East Carolina and getting past Memphis and Tulane at home.
Why, we can even dream that the Nov. 27 game with Tulane won't be the last time the Bulls play at Raymond James Stadium. The American team with the best conference standing or highest ranking in the event of a tie gets to host the conference title game.
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