Vegas Says USF Will Fall Big at Miami — But Haven’t They Been Wrong Before?

As USF prepares to play at Miami on Saturday, the oddsmakers are saying the same thing they did in the Bulls’ first two games: They will lose.

USF is a 17.5-point underdog against the Hurricanes, basically the same amount the Florida Gators were favored by last week. Boise State was a 6.5-point pick over the Bulls.

And yet, in those first two games, USF won by a combined 52-23 over a pair of ranked teams.

Can it happen again?

Let’s not sugarcoat it: This will be the Bulls’ biggest test in the regular season. You see potential NFL talent just about everywhere you look in Miami.

“I know I sound like a broken record in terms of the level of play. What stands out with those guys is truly the offensive and defensive lines are on another level,” USF head coach Alex Golesh said.

“Offensively, super veteran offensive line, four starters back, and then the center (James Brockermeyer) is a heck of a player. Came in as a veteran guy (from TCU), but what they're able to do offensively starts there. We saw it a year ago in person. But they've, they've gotten better.”

So has USF, of course. Miami won last year’s game 50-15 when the ‘Canes outscored USF 28-0 in the second half. The Bulls, with more high-quality depth on the offensive and defensive lines than in 2024, should not suffer a nightmare like that again.

USF has surrendered only two touchdowns this season and has been able to make the big stop when needed. The Bulls will need to do that again against UM quarterback Carson Beck, who is playing at an elite level after a shoulder injury led to him transferring from Georgia in the off-season.

However, we said basically the same thing last week about Florida quarterback DJ Lagway. The Bulls rendered him largely ineffective, and now Gator fans are so flummoxed by the loss to USF that they want to fire head coach Billy Napier.

Much of the country has celebrated what the Bulls have done so far, despite what the oddsmakers said was going to happen. There is nothing false about the confidence and belief this football team has in itself.

It’s exactly what Golesh set out to build when he arrived at USF in late 2022. It’s a team that is focused, united, and led by the players. They hold each other accountable, and they tune out the noise.

If Miami defeats the Bulls, they’ll react the same way they did after winning the first two games. They’ll study what went right and what went wrong, and then the game will be assigned to the dustbin as they prepare for South Carolina State.

Golesh loves to talk about the Bulls’ “process” as they move through the season. The aim is to win the day, whether it’s a practice, a film session, or basics like proper rest and nutrition.

Do that, and do it again the next day.

Miami looms on Saturday.

The oddsmakers say USF will lose by more than two touchdowns.

Maybe, but when it comes to this team, the oddsmakers haven’t gotten it right yet.