With the NCAA basketball tournament -- well, tournaments (plural) -- all but certain to expand to 76 teams for the upcoming season, the optimist says it is good news for the USF men's and women's teams.
The purists will harrumph and say that all expansion means is we'll see more bottom-feeders from power conferences get in. Maybe that's true -- and if it is it'll give us something to complain about when instead of the 10 bids the SEC got this year it gets 13.
But either way, we're talking about doubling the number of play-in teams from eight to 16, which means four more games. The Republic will survive.
CBS Sports reported Thursday that the Division I men's and women's basketball committees formally voted for the expansion. A couple of other committees need to stamp their approval, which is expected.
NEW: The D-I men's and women's basketball committees have officially voted to expand the NCAA tournament to 76 teams, @MattNorlander reports. https://t.co/qR2zGzwFbW pic.twitter.com/6OsryvKW2k
— On3 (@On3) May 7, 2026
I did some rough arithmetic on the 31 Division I conferences whose champions receive automatic bids. Out of those leagues, 191 men's teams had winning records in 2025-26. USF, of course, was one of those teams for the first time since 2012 after winning both the regular-season and American Conference tournament titles.
The Bulls lost a hard-fought 83-79 game to Louisville, but they definitely proved they belonged in the field. While the women's team was not invited, they have been regular NCAA participants over the years.
New women's coach Kristy Curry has taken 14 teams to the Big Dance over her career. Chris Mack, who took over the men's program after Bryan Hodgson left for Providence, has guided nine teams to the tournament.
Assuming they keep up that level of success, an expanded field should increase their chances of extending their seasons -- even in a mid-major conference.
Maybe.
The fear, of course, is that the power conferences will hog the extra bids. Remember how Auburn lobbied furiously for a bid despite finishing 12th in the SEC with a 7-11 conference record? Its supporters mocked Miami (Ohio) sparkling season as the product of an inferior league. Well, no one is saying the MAC stands toe-to-toe with the SEC, but c'mon.
The RedHawks eventually got in and won a play-in game against SMU. Auburn won the NIT by beating Tulsa of the American 92-86 in the title game.
What would happen in a similar situation next season where a bottom-rung power conference team feels entitled to Big Dance invitation? ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi thinks he knows.
"Those hoping for a glut of additional mid-majors in a 76-team field are likely to be disappointed. Outside the recent and extremely rare example of Miami (Ohio), the bubble has consisted primarily of mediocre power-conference members along with high-end contenders from mid-major leagues such as the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, American and West Coast Conference. We can also expect the reemerging Pac-12 to be part of the new at-large mix," he said.
"For better or worse, the days of Belmont or Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion earning at-large bids are likely gone. That only changes if the NCAA adopts a tournament eligibility floor, such as requiring conference records of .500 or better for at-large consideration, in which case they run the risk of the big boys breaking away to form their own tournament before agreeing to any such restrictions."
I do think the selection committee -- at this time -- might have a tougher time finding 76 women's teams to fill the field.
While the women's game has grown tremendously in recent years, the gap between the top teams and even programs like USF remains enormous. The Bulls were a pretty good team last season, and included in their 20 wins 13-point beat down of Duke, which made to the regional finals.
But the Bulls also lost by 33 points to UCLA, 34 points to UConn, 29 points to Vanderbilt, and by a staggering 103-44 to South Carolina.
The point being, despite those showings USF probably would have beaten many teams in the 68-team NCAA field. Maybe in another decade there will be enough teams good enough to close the gap on UConn and the rest, but there aren't now.
However, what's done is done. The tournaments are expanded and it's up to both Bulls teams to prove they belong.
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